A scientific look at how experts come to be

(via boingboing)
No, this isn’t like the satirical look Stephen Colbert gave us earlier in the week.  Over at Scientific American there is an article dealing with the study of the mind of experts.

Studies of the mental processes of chess grandmasters have revealed clues to how people become experts in other fields as well

A man walks along the inside of a circle of chess tables, glancing at each for two or three seconds before making his move. On the outer rim, dozens of amateurs sit pondering their replies until he completes the circuit. The year is 1909, the man is José Raúl Capablanca of Cuba, and the result is a whitewash: 28 wins in as many games. The exhibition was part of a tour in which Capablanca won 168 games in a row.

How did he play so well, so quickly? And how far ahead could he calculate under such constraints? “I see only one move ahead,” Capablanca is said to have answered, “but it is always the correct one.”

Part of the problem of studying experts is studying in a field where expertise can be measured.  As the Scientific American article points out, there are experts in fields like teaching or business management, but how can you get quantitative results which can be used to compare the expert and average person in those fields?  With chess, there is the rating structure which is well defined and easily understood.

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What the?!?!?!?

OK, so I’ve been on something of a forensics/profiler/behavioral sciences kick lately.  The book I’m currently reading, The Evil That Men Do, references a forensic medicine book.  Thinking I’d look in to the options for this, I do an Amazon search for ‘forensic medicine’ and look over the list.  As I am looking at one offering, Encyclopedia of Forensic and Legal Medicine, Volume 1-4 (Hardcover), I notice this odd little pairing Amazon gives me for the “Better together” option:

forensics.jpg

I never would have guessed one could get more enjoyment from a forensics encyclopedia by purchasing it with the March of the Penguins DVD.

[tags]Forensic medicine, Better together, Amazon[/tags]

OK, so it might be a little tough to read

I just saw this at ahajokes while looking at their funny picture of the day. This poem was listed in their funny form of the day. Try to read the whole thing out loud. It’s long, and continues after the break, so don’t think you’ve made it just because you clear a couple of paragraphs.

Dearest creature in creation,
Study English pronunciation.
I will teach you in my verse
Sounds like corpse, corps, horse, and worse.
I will keep you, Suzy, busy,
Make your head with heat grow dizzy.
Tear in eye, your dress will tear.
So shall I! Oh hear my prayer.

Just compare heart, beard, and heard,
Dies and diet, lord and word,
Sword and sward, retain and Britain.
(Mind the latter, how it’s written.)
Now I surely will not plague you
With such words as plaque and ague.
But be careful how you speak:
Say break and steak, but bleak and streak;
Cloven, oven, how and low,
Script, receipt, show, poem, and toe.
Continue reading “OK, so it might be a little tough to read”

British adopt stupid threat level model similar to US

(via Scheier’s security blog)

Do you know the current American terrorist threat level? Probably not. And why is that? Because almost since inception, the threat level has been at yellow. Occasionally, it climbs up to orange. threat-level-chart.jpgIn certain parts of the country, it has been at red at times. But never has it been at blue or green – the two lowest levels. And what does that mean? It means since the inception of this idiotic political ploy the current administration has saddled us with, we have been told to be aware of anything out of the ordinary, for there is a significant risk of terrorist attack.

Let me let you in on a little secret – we are no more at risk of terrorist attack now than we were 10 years ago – OK, maybe a little more at risk given our attack on a country on questionable evidence of potential threat, thereby alienating many people who previously didn’t care enough about the US to even think about us, and making the ones who already hated us even more hateful and driven by vengeance – but really, that’s a tiny change, probably not even enough to measure on that little chart on the right. The only difference is the 9/11 attacks showed us that we were at risk, when we thought we were safe and secure in our little bubble of North America. And I don’t call the threat level security model stupid because of who is in the White House – honestly, I believe that had a Democrat been in the White House, we’d still have some stupid model of similar design. It might be something different, but it would still be there. And why do we have it? So politicians can point out the elevated risk in an easy to understand format and use that as justification for taking more of our money to spend it on more stupid “security” measures that won’t actually increase America’s security, and likely will reduce it.

The problem with constantly telling everyone to “be alert” is that we aren’t given any guidance on what we are to watch, how to tell if something is out of the ordinary, what we might expect as a higher risk attack, or anything else that would make an elevated alertness warning have meaning. And we’re Americans. Do you know what that means? We have short attention spans, an unwillingness to change our ways, and a tendency to ignore security and safety procedures when they inconvenience us. Even if the threat level model were any good, it’s been at yellow too long to matter. To make an impact on Americans’ behaviors at this point, it would probably take a red alert – I doubt even an orange alert on a nationwide basis would phase 99+% of the people in this country.

So, why the rant over all this? Well, the British are going to be implementing a similar poorly-conceived alert model. The one difference is, they suffer attacks sufficiently more often than we do that it might make a difference. It won’t, mind you, but potentially it could. If their government is smart enough to maintian a blue or green alert stage equivalent the vast majority of the time, going to yellow or orange equivalent might make a difference in peoples’ behaviors. I just hate to see more money wasted on more “security precautions” that are just well publicized ways for governments to spend money on actions that typically reduce security instead of improving it.
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Today in history – 1876: “Wild Bill” Hickok draws Aces and Eights

The now-named dead man’s hand, called so after the legend that Hickok was holding a winning hand of black aces and eights when approached from behind and shot in the back of the head by a cowardly gunman.  From The History Channel:

“Wild Bill” Hickok, one of the greatest gunfighters of the American West, is murdered in Deadwood, South Dakota.

Born in Illinois in 1837, James Butler “Wild Bill” Hickok first gained notoriety as a gunfighter in 1861 when he coolly shot three men who were trying to kill him. A highly sensationalized account of the gunfight appeared six years later in the popular periodical Harper’s New Monthly Magazine, sparking Hickok’s rise to national fame. Other articles and books followed, and though his prowess was often exaggerated, Hickok did earn his reputation with a string of impressive gunfights.

After accidentally killing his deputy during an 1871 shootout in Abilene, Texas, Hickok never fought another gun battle. For the next several years he lived off his famous reputation, appearing as himself in Buffalo Bill Cody’s Wild West show. Occasionally, he worked as guide for wealthy hunters. His renowned eyesight began to fail, and for a time he was reduced to wandering the West trying to make a living as a gambler. Several times he was arrested for vagrancy.

In the spring of 1876, Hickok arrived in the Black Hills mining town of Deadwood, South Dakota. There he became a regular at the poker tables of the No. 10 Saloon, eking out a meager existence as a card player. On this day in 1876, Hickok was playing cards with his back to the saloon door. At 4:15 in the afternoon, a young gunslinger named Jack McCall walked into the saloon, approached Hickok from behind, and shot him in the back of the head. Hickok died immediately. McCall tried to shoot others in the crowd, but amazingly, all of the remaining cartridges in his pistol were duds. McCall was later tried, convicted, and hanged.

Hickok was only 39 years old when he died. The most famous gunfighter in the history of the West died with his Smith & Wesson revolver in his holster, never having seen his murderer. According to legend, Hickok held a pair of black aces and black eights when he died, a combination that has since been known as the Dead Man’s Hand.

[tags]Today in History, Aces and Eights, Dead Man’s Hand, Wild Bill Hickok[/tags]

Weird signs

(via Neatorama)

Have you ever been on the phone with your wife, discussing something serious, like the kids painting everything in the living room, and started reading a web site with scads of weird signs that had you struggling to not laugh while your wife told you how rough her day has been? Well, I don’t recommend it, but if you can visit this gallery of weird signs sometime when it won’t interrupt a serious moment, I do recommend it. The signs are oddities on their own, but reading the commentary/imagined sign description really makes for some good laughs. Here are a couple, with the hosts comments.

Radioactive Animals.

radioactive-animals.jpgFrom a major university hospital which shall remain nameless. I wonder where the radioactive animals actually go?

Truth in Advertising

truth-in-advertising.jpgApparently the folks at Newcastle Tramway Authority know something about the next world that the rest of us don’t. Thanks to Mark

[tags]Weird signs, Humor[/tags]

Light gets tired, slows down – perhaps an old age issue?

While some people might try to tell you that light is subject to the doppler effect, the authors of this article from the November 1932 issue of Modern Mechanix magazine know otherwise. The reality is, after travelling for centuries and centuries to reach earth, the light is tired, and slows down as a result. My theory is the light just wants to stop and smell the roses, seeing how Earth is the only planet around that has roses. Now I can’t confirm that Earth is the only nearby planet with roses, but I’ve got a pretty strong conviction on this.

mm_red_shift2.jpg

THAT light rays get tired as they travel for millions of years through space, fritter away a little of themselves century by century and end by changing color so that rays which started as blue ones may finish by becoming red is suggested by scientists. Astronomers have discovered that light rays coming to the earth from the most distant nebulae actually show what is called the “red shift,” which means the light from these nebulae is shifted a little toward the red end of the spectrum. What may be happening is that each tiny bit of each light ray may lose a small fraction of its substance as it moves through space.

As pointed out on the Modern Mechanix web page, the concept of stars moving away from Earth, thereby causing red-shift, was known and used as early as 1868 for measuring the velocity of stars movement away from us. So who knows why these people used this article, as it could already be shown as nonsense at the time.

[tags]Modern Mechanix, Light gets tired, doppler effect, red-shift[/tags]

A fuel consumption and efficiency study in way too much detail

(via MAKEzine blog)

Matthew Vea owns a 2006 Jeep Wrangler Unlimited.  With the horrendous cost of gas we all suffer under now, he decided to learn a bit more about his Jeep’s fuel consumption, where the sweet spot for driving is, how much gearing, cruise-control or manual speed control, air condition usage, and more affected fuel consumption, and all the other dirty details someone who would even take on this project can find out.

Starting with hooking up an OBD-II tool (a computer for performance monitoring) to his Jeep’s computer, he tracked pretty much everything he could to see how it all ties together.  The end result is a huge, detailed write-up to all the data he gathered.  For me, on a 1024×768 screen, the final document is about 40 screens worth of text and images.  When I say it’s way too much detail, I mean that for the average reader, it’s more than one will likely read through.  But if you take time to read even a few sections of the article, you can learn a lot about how to test your vehicle, as well as getting a few ideas that will probably help you improve your fuel efficiency.

Also, the end of the article has almost 100 links to articles the Matthew links as back-up to what he writes.  This is a rich resource for anyone interested in studying or improving fuel consumption and vehicle performance.

I own a 2006 Jeep Wrangler Unlimited. This vehicle is actually an upgrade from my previous 2004 Jeep Wrangler Sport. My first Jeep did not have any air conditioning or a cruise control. After spending a year in the desert heat of Iraq, I vowed to myself that if it were in my control, then never again would I go without air conditioning. So, I figured if I was going to burn gas up in my 4×4, I may as well burn it up a little more comfortably.

. . .

For saving gas, there are three courses of action. First, driving style affects fuel efficiency. Many people cite “rules of thumb,” but most cannot back these claims up with evidence. To learn the truth about driving style, I conducted road tests with a computer interface hooked into my engine. The second way to improve fuel efficiency is to modify the way an engine performs. Modifications take many forms so I browsed the Internet to find the most common and analyzed the fact and fiction behind their performance. Lastly, the very fuel that goes into an engine plays a role in efficiency. With all the talk of alternative fuels these days, I wanted to know what they are, whether they work in my engine and how they compare to regular gasoline. Ultimately, I take all the cards relating to fuel efficiency and lay them on the table for scrutiny.

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Sony warns of greater gaming division losses

The writeup at ArsTechnica has all the gory details.  Sony has announced that the cost of some components for the PlayStation 3 have gone up.  After a US$231 loss for the division last quarter, Sony is warning of a greater loss than originally expected around the PlayStation 3 launch.

According to Merrill Lynch Japan, such a move could result in a second-year loss for Sony of US$730 million, and another loss of US$457 million in its third year. This would be in stark contrast to the PS2, which was profitable in its second year, to the tune of US$757 million.

. . .

So if the game console business is getting so expensive, why do companies like Sony and Microsoft continue to chase it? Each company is looking at the long term benefits of having the dominant game console market share, and each company has additional reasons to promote its own console. Sony, on one hand, is clearly anxious to push the Blu-ray format in order to create a market for the high-definition movie standard they are promoting. Microsoft, on the other hand, likes the idea of the Xbox serving as an entertainment hub that links seamlessly to computers running the Media Center Edition of Windows.

Then there’s Nintendo, who have consistently turned a profit with their gaming hardware and never seemed to jump on the bandwagon of losing money selling high-powered units below cost in order to make it back with game sales and third-party license fees.

The rest of this year and early next will be interesting in the console business, I suppose.  I want Sony to do well with the PlayStation 3, but more and more it sounds like a troubled console, or at least a troubled launch.

[tags]Sony, PlayStation 3[/tags]

City of Heroes lore

This one is completely, totally, and unashamedly for City of Heroes players only. If you don’t play City of Heroes, please go to the next post, as this will mean nothing to you.

Now, for the three of you that get to this section, if you want to know more of the lore of City of Heroes, hit this forum thread for all kinds of details and wondrous information.

  • Nowaki:
    Did you know that the last contact you get in the Outbreak tutorial, Coyote is a tribute to the first member of the City of Heroes pre-beta community.His forum handle was Kiyotee, his real name was Matt Bragg. He was an active contributing member of the pre-beta community for 2 years, one of the nicest guys around, but died tragically around the time the game was released.

    The tutorial character Coyote, bear’s Matt’s name and character’s identity.

  • IanTheM1:
    I’m guessing Kings Row was left without a trainer for a while because…Back in Beta, Galaxy City didn’t exist!

    That’s right, back in Beta you went straight to Atlas after being forced to do the tutorial. Kings Row appropriately had retired police officer Michael Knight AKA Back Alley Brawler serving as the trainer of Kings Row.

    Since Beta had become so crowded, there was a call for a second starting zone, thus Galaxy City was born, and Brawler moved there.

    Since Galaxy didn’t exist at the time, Kings Row connected to Perez Park! You can still see the spot where the old gate was. It’s in the northeast part of High Park. You can’t miss the lookout posts and the fenced in section.

  • Bad_Luck:
    Break-frees were originally Disciplines, which didn’t negate holds, they only added defense against them. For a while you could trade in bounty in SC and get them instead of break-frees.Unyielding used to root you to one spot.

There’s around 50 pages of posts there now. Some of the information is getting off the CoH lore/backstory and into the CoH history and what-used-to-be, but it’s still interesting to folks that play the game, I think.

[tags]City of Heroes lore[/tags]

The Star Trek future comes ever closer

(via Engadget)

This new gadget might sound totally fake, but it is a real product (or soon will be). Prepare in the future to have your bones repaired via ultrasonic bone stimulation from the EXOGEN 4000+ Bone Healing System!

Smith & Nephew’s (NYSE: SNN, LSE: SN) Orthopaedic Trauma & Clinical Therapies division today announced FDA exogen.jpgapproval for its EXOGEN 4000+* Bone Healing System.

The EXOGEN 4000+ Bone Healing System is a low-intensity pulsed ultrasound device that is externally applied 20 minutes a day over the site of a broken bone. It is the ONLY bone stimulator:

  • using ultrasound technology approved to treat fractures that that have failed to heal;
  • approved to heal specific fresh fractures faster

The EXOGEN 4000+ is medically proven to promote the body’s natural healing process, speeding the repair of a broken bone. The system is also clinically proven to speed up the healing of certain new fractures by 38 percent and effectively healing 86 percent of hard-to-heal bone fractures.

The system will launch in domestic and International markets in the fall of 2006, and will replace the EXOGEN 2000+*.

There you have it – bone healing from a handheld sonic device. Soon, we’ll be repairing tumors, stopping bleeding, healing phaser knife wounds, and more. This is an exciting time to be seriously injured, isn’t it?

[tags]Exogen 4000+, Ultrasonic bone repair, Star Trek future[/tags]