More predicitions

First, he did a review of his predictions from last year.  Now, he’s written his predictions for the coming year.  Ed Felton is a sharp cookie (is that mixing metaphors too much there?), and his stuff is always good reading.  I’ll admit that I don’t find many of these predictions hard to see, so it’s not like this is a radically forward-thinking list.  Still, it’s thoughtful and there are a few especially interesting predictions there.

I especially like

(16) Broadcasters will move toward Internet simulcasting of free TV channels. Other efforts to distribute authorized video over the net will disappoint.

(17) HD-DVD and Blu-ray, touted as the second coming of the DVD, will look increasingly like the second coming of the Laserdisc.

Also, it might just happen, but I’m skeptical of

(23) There will be a felony conviction in the U.S. for a crime committed entirely in a virtual world.